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During the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the only EU chief to endorse Donald Trump. This support was hardly surprising, in light of Mr Orbán's embrace of controversial ideas such as the "great replacement" theory and the crackdowns on press independence. Commentators observe that Mr Orbán essentially pioneered Trump's base, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon hailing him as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance Before Hungarian Elections

Last week, amid crucial Hungarian elections merely approaching in six months, the US president returned some political favors. With Orbán pursues a fifth term in office governing a country he calls an illiberal state, his political group lags in surveys. An official trip to the US capital resulted in beyond some autographed Trump merchandise; it brought considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Energy Exemptions and Economic Protections

Although before lecturing European states on the need to halt all energy imports from Russia, and threatening restrictions against nations still to import Russian energy, Mr Trump approved to allow a special exemption for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian petroleum. Per the Hungarian leader, the American leadership also pledged to provide a “financial shield” to Budapest should it encounters any future difficulties, given that the European Union continues to withhold large sums from the EU to Hungary due to rule-of-law breaches.

The specifics of this arrangement remain somewhat murky. Yet Donald Trump recently demonstrated his readiness to support ideological allies when the US extended a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, Javier Milei. While Orbán did not secure a campaign-energising Trump visit to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting nevertheless proved a profitable day’s work.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention will have highlighted the international consequences of the upcoming vote, prior to which the centrist challenger, Péter Magyar, has a comfortable lead in opinion data. Heads of state are accustomed not to anticipate principled consistency from the Trump White House, and accept the Trump's moves to diminish the EU. But Mr Orbán’s exemption – which came at the price of an pledge to purchase US gas and nuclear energy – openly contradicts EU aspirations to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the two biggest EU importers of Russian petroleum, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have provided more than ten billion pounds to the Russian military campaign.
• Meanwhile, Budapest has consistently deployed the veto power to hinder advancement in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• While Europe works to develop a cohesive plan for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the diplomatic table is still a key barrier.

Opposition Stance

The opposition candidate has steered clear of promising a major policy shift on the war in Ukraine, and directed his efforts on home affairs, while stressing the importance for the country to start acting as a positive member state. After enduring persistent provocations, the European Union can only remain patient. The Hungarian leader's apathy to fundamental European principles, including the support for minority protections and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has long been a deeply troubling issue for the European Union. His continued obstructionism regarding the Ukraine issue threatens to weaken its security prospects.